tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Tampa via Los Angeles: arrives on time 47%

  1. 20:03 SFO → 21:40 LAX
    DL 1559 · Delta · 1h 37m · 67% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 LAX → 06:16 TPA +1 day
    DL 910 · Delta · 4h 42m · 79% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip7h 13mSFO 20:03 to TPA 06:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.