tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Des Moines via Detroit: arrives on time 81%

  1. 23:04 PHX → 05:46 DTW
    DL 1566 · Delta · 3h 42m · 77% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 59m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:45 DTW → 09:44 DSM +1 day
    DL 5058 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 59m · 87% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 134 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 59m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip8h 40mPHX 23:04 to DSM 09:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.