tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Raleigh/Durham via Detroit: arrives on time 75%

  1. 23:04 PHX → 05:46 DTW
    DL 1566 · Delta · 3h 42m · 77% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:05 DTW → 08:48 RDU +1 day
    DL 1427 · Delta · 1h 43m · 94% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip6h 44mPHX 23:04 to RDU 08:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.