tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Tampa via Detroit: arrives on time 70%

  1. 23:04 PHX → 05:46 DTW
    DL 1566 · Delta · 3h 42m · 77% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 DTW → 09:38 TPA +1 day
    DL 2852 · Delta · 2h 38m · 87% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip7h 34mPHX 23:04 to TPA 09:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.