tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 86%

  1. 23:04 PHX → 05:46 DTW
    DL 1566 · Delta · 3h 42m · 77% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 04m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:50 DTW → 10:23 IAD +1 day
    DL 2884 · Delta · 1h 35m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 04m layover.
Arrives on time86%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip8h 21mPHX 23:04 to IAD 10:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.