tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Traverse City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:27 ORD → 14:10 MSP
    DL 1567 · Delta · 1h 43m · 67% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:25 MSP → 17:55 TVC
    DL 4915 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 28mORD 12:27 to TVC 17:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.