tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 12:27 ORD → 14:10 MSP
    DL 1567 · Delta · 1h 43m · 67% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:07 MSP → 17:14 SFO
    DL 756 · Delta · 4h 06m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 46mORD 12:27 to SFO 17:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.