tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Rapid City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 48%

  1. 12:27 ORD → 14:10 MSP
    DL 1567 · Delta · 1h 43m · 67% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 MSP → 15:48 RAP
    DL 3851 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 48m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 21mORD 12:27 to RAP 15:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.