tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Portland: arrives on time 90%

  1. 08:30 JFK → 11:34 PDX
    DL 1574 · Delta · 6h 04m · 87% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 14m layover in Portland (PDX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 14:48 PDX → 17:19 SNA
    AS 264 · Alaska · 2h 31m · 92% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 11h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 104 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 14m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip11h 49mJFK 08:30 to SNA 17:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.