tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → San Francisco via Atlanta: arrives on time 45%

  1. 19:57 TPA → 21:43 ATL
    DL 1594 · Delta · 1h 46m · 71% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:40 SFO +1 day
    DL 656 · Delta · 5h 00m · 70% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 43mTPA 19:57 to SFO 00:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.