tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 50%

  1. 06:15 EWR → 08:13 MSP
    DL 1641 · Delta · 2h 58m · 89% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:24 MSP → 11:35 SFO
    DL 2078 · Delta · 4h 11m · 59% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip8h 20mEWR 06:15 to SFO 11:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.