tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Seattle via Minneapolis: arrives on time 71%

  1. 06:15 EWR → 08:13 MSP
    DL 1641 · Delta · 2h 58m · 89% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:05 MSP → 10:59 SEA
    DL 868 · Delta · 3h 54m · 88% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 44mEWR 06:15 to SEA 10:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.