tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Memphis via Minneapolis: arrives on time 71%

  1. 06:15 EWR → 08:13 MSP
    DL 1641 · Delta · 2h 58m · 89% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:10 MSP → 11:25 MEM
    DL 3989 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 15m · 87% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip6h 10mEWR 06:15 to MEM 11:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.