tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 41%

  1. 16:45 MCO → 18:41 ATL
    DL 1642 · Delta · 1h 56m · 49% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:53 ATL → 21:19 SDF
    DL 3093 · Delta · 1h 26m · 79% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 34mMCO 16:45 to SDF 21:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.