tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Knoxville via Atlanta: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:51 IAD → 19:54 ATL
    DL 1695 · Delta · 2h 08m · 74% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 ATL → 21:49 TYS
    DL 5224 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 05m · 67% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip3h 58mIAD 17:51 to TYS 21:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.