tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → San Francisco via Atlanta: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:51 IAD → 19:54 ATL
    DL 1695 · Delta · 2h 08m · 74% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:42 ATL → 22:49 SFO
    DL 545 · Delta · 5h 07m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 58mIAD 17:51 to SFO 22:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.