tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Santa Ana via Atlanta: arrives on time 56%

  1. 17:51 IAD → 19:54 ATL
    DL 1695 · Delta · 2h 08m · 74% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:51 ATL → 22:28 SNA
    DL 826 · Delta · 4h 37m · 79% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip7h 37mIAD 17:51 to SNA 22:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.