tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 65%

  1. 17:51 IAD → 19:54 ATL
    DL 1695 · Delta · 2h 08m · 74% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 ATL → 22:47 PHX
    DL 842 · Delta · 4h 02m · 75% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 66 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 51m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 56mIAD 17:51 to PHX 22:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.