tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 77%

  1. 17:10 MDW → 20:22 ATL
    DL 1728 · Delta · 2h 10m · 74% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 40m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:02 ATL → 00:26 SDF +1 day
    DL 2624 · Delta · 1h 26m · 85% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 40m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 18mMDW 17:10 to SDF 00:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.