tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Atlanta: arrives on time 62%

  1. 17:10 MDW → 20:22 ATL
    DL 1728 · Delta · 2h 10m · 74% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 18m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:40 SFO +1 day
    DL 656 · Delta · 5h 00m · 70% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 93 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 18m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip9h 30mMDW 17:10 to SFO 00:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.