tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:29 IAD → 19:07 DTW
    DL 1787 · Delta · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 44mIAD 17:29 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.