tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Tampa via Detroit: arrives on time 52%

  1. 17:29 IAD → 19:07 DTW
    DL 1787 · Delta · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 DTW → 22:35 TPA
    DL 1355 · Delta · 2h 40m · 77% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 10mIAD 17:29 to TPA 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.