tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → St Louis via Detroit: arrives on time 53%

  1. 17:29 IAD → 19:07 DTW
    DL 1787 · Delta · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DTW → 20:39 STL
    DL 1541 · Delta · 1h 39m · 78% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 10mIAD 17:29 to STL 20:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.