tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 58%

  1. 17:29 IAD → 19:07 DTW
    DL 1787 · Delta · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 37m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 DTW → 21:48 PHX
    DL 2076 · Delta · 4h 04m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 52 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 37m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip7h 19mIAD 17:29 to PHX 21:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.