tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 63%

  1. 17:29 IAD → 19:07 DTW
    DL 1787 · Delta · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 43m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 DTW → 23:41 LGA
    DL 2603 · Delta · 1h 51m · 74% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 118 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 43m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 12mIAD 17:29 to LGA 23:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.