tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Norfolk via Detroit: arrives on time 57%

  1. 17:29 IAD → 19:07 DTW
    DL 1787 · Delta · 1h 38m · 76% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 33m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 DTW → 23:29 ORF
    DL 412 · Delta · 1h 49m · 64% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 108 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 33m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 00mIAD 17:29 to ORF 23:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.