tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Dulles via Minneapolis: arrives on time 46%

  1. 18:10 DTW → 19:08 MSP
    DL 1842 · Delta · 1h 58m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 MSP → 23:25 IAD
    DL 4129 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 30m · 78% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 15mDTW 18:10 to IAD 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.