tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 36%

  1. 11:44 SNA → 19:06 DTW
    DL 1856 · Delta · 4h 22m · 55% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 29mSNA 11:44 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.