tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Austin via Detroit: arrives on time 45%

  1. 11:44 SNA → 19:06 DTW
    DL 1856 · Delta · 4h 22m · 55% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:09 DTW → 22:11 AUS
    DL 2578 · Delta · 3h 02m · 76% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 27mSNA 11:44 to AUS 22:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.