tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Raleigh/Durham via Kansas City: arrives on time 39%

  1. 15:35 LGA → 18:01 MCI
    DL 2068 · Delta · 3h 28m · 60% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MCI → 22:26 RDU
    DL 4648 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 31m · 75% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 51mLGA 15:35 to RDU 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.