tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → St Louis via Minneapolis: arrives on time 75%

  1. 12:45 SFO → 18:23 MSP
    DL 2078 · Delta · 3h 38m · 61% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 27m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 MSP → 23:22 STL
    DL 1609 · Delta · 1h 33m · 78% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 162 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 27m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip8h 38mSFO 12:45 to STL 23:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.