tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 58%

  1. 12:45 SFO → 18:23 MSP
    DL 2078 · Delta · 3h 38m · 61% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 37m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 MSP → 23:27 DCA
    DL 2961 · Delta · 2h 26m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection86%The first flight arrived more than 52 minutes late on 14% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 37m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (86%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 41mSFO 12:45 to DCA 23:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.