tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Minneapolis via Tampa: arrives on time 50%

  1. 14:40 JFK → 17:51 TPA
    DL 2093 · Delta · 3h 11m · 79% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:37 TPA → 21:17 MSP
    DL 2264 · Delta · 3h 40m · 78% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 37mJFK 14:40 to MSP 21:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.