tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Atlanta: arrives on time 45%

  1. 16:08 PHL → 18:25 ATL
    DL 2131 · Delta · 2h 15m · 70% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:28 ATL → 20:24 XNA
    DL 5159 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 58m · 63% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 18mPHL 16:08 to XNA 20:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.