tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Dulles via Atlanta: arrives on time 47%

  1. 16:08 PHL → 18:25 ATL
    DL 2131 · Delta · 2h 15m · 70% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 ATL → 21:03 IAD
    DL 1309 · Delta · 1h 49m · 76% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 56mPHL 16:08 to IAD 21:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.