tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 53%

  1. 15:02 IAD → 16:54 ATL
    DL 2135 · Delta · 1h 52m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ATL → 18:53 PHX
    DL 836 · Delta · 3h 59m · 73% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 56mIAD 15:02 to PHX 18:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.