tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Chicago via Minneapolis: arrives on time 53%

  1. 06:20 SJC → 12:02 MSP
    DL 2156 · Delta · 3h 42m · 94% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 18m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:20 MSP → 17:02 ORD
    DL 1306 · Delta · 1h 42m · 57% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 153 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 18m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 42mSJC 06:20 to ORD 17:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.