tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Newark via Minneapolis: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:00 SFO → 11:35 MSP
    DL 2178 · Delta · 3h 35m · 94% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 35m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:10 MSP → 17:53 EWR
    DL 2866 · Delta · 2h 45m · 76% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 35m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 55mSFO 06:00 to EWR 17:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.