tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 62%

  1. 08:00 SNA → 13:41 MSP
    DL 2185 · Delta · 3h 40m · 85% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:38 MSP → 18:09 DCA
    DL 2963 · Delta · 2h 31m · 77% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip7h 09mSNA 08:00 to DCA 18:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.