tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 26%

  1. 20:25 LAX → 21:49 SFO
    DL 2197 · Delta · 1h 25m · 45% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 SFO → 07:02 JFK +1 day
    DL 365 · Delta · 5h 30m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection34%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 66% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (34%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 40mLAX 20:25 to JFK 07:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.