tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → New York via Minneapolis: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:25 DTW → 17:20 MSP
    DL 2203 · Delta · 1h 55m · 76% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 MSP → 22:09 JFK
    DL 5244 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 59m · 52% on time, 11.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (11.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 44mDTW 16:25 to JFK 22:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.