tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 55%

  1. 09:24 MSP → 10:46 PHX
    DL 2208 · Delta · 3h 22m · 77% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:40 PHX → 20:01 JFK
    DL 791 · Delta · 5h 15m · 80% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip9h 31mMSP 09:24 to JFK 20:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.