tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Newark via Minneapolis: arrives on time 68%

  1. 11:51 PHX → 16:56 MSP
    DL 2208 · Delta · 3h 05m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 19m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 MSP → 23:59 EWR
    DL 2846 · Delta · 2h 44m · 73% on time, 5.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 154 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 19m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (5.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 08mPHX 11:51 to EWR 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.