tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Minneapolis: arrives on time 80%

  1. 11:51 PHX → 16:56 MSP
    DL 2208 · Delta · 3h 05m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 09m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 MSP → 22:21 MEM
    DL 4035 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 16m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 144 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 09m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 30mPHX 11:51 to MEM 22:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.