tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Baltimore via Minneapolis: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:15 SMF → 11:40 MSP
    DL 2229 · Delta · 3h 25m · 92% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:41 MSP → 18:15 BWI
    DL 2565 · Delta · 2h 33m · 63% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 136 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip8h 59mSMF 06:15 to BWI 18:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.