tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → New York via Minneapolis: arrives on time 77%

  1. 06:15 SMF → 11:40 MSP
    DL 2229 · Delta · 3h 25m · 92% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:53 MSP → 17:00 JFK
    DL 2661 · Delta · 3h 07m · 84% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 45mSMF 06:15 to JFK 17:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.