tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Las Vegas via Minneapolis: arrives on time 55%

  1. 18:27 JFK → 20:53 MSP
    DL 2245 · Delta · 3h 26m · 70% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:54 MSP → 23:20 LAS
    DL 1442 · Delta · 3h 26m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 53mJFK 18:27 to LAS 23:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.