tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 66%

  1. 07:30 TPA → 09:50 MSP
    DL 2263 · Delta · 3h 20m · 92% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 MSP → 13:10 SFO
    DL 2074 · Delta · 4h 10m · 70% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 40mTPA 07:30 to SFO 13:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.