tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Hebron via Minneapolis: arrives on time 67%

  1. 13:51 PHX → 19:00 MSP
    DL 2274 · Delta · 3h 08m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 MSP → 23:09 CVG
    DL 1469 · Delta · 1h 49m · 78% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 18mPHX 13:51 to CVG 23:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.