tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Madison via Minneapolis: arrives on time 77%

  1. 13:51 PHX → 19:00 MSP
    DL 2274 · Delta · 3h 08m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 59m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 MSP → 23:00 MSN
    DL 1599 · Delta · 1h 03m · 83% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 134 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 59m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip7h 11mPHX 13:51 to MSN 23:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.